http://www.otrader.com.au/blog/options-probability-calculator.html Stock and Option Portfolio management for Active Traders and Investors Mon, 01 Jun 2009 23:06:45 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 http://www.otrader.com.au/blog/options-probability-calculator.html/comment-page-1#comment-367 elanus Mon, 01 Jun 2009 23:06:45 +0000 http://www.otrader.com.au/blog1/?p=14#comment-367 The Options Probability Calculator had me stumped for a while. The web page says "you will see a green band in the middle of the bell curve. This band represents the area where we have calculated the stock will most probably trade over the life of the trade". I changed my call and put strikes and the green band changed! Try entering 'price 10, days 30, vol 25, call 11, put 9), then change to 'call 11.5, put 9.5' and watch the green band move. Obviously my trades make no difference to the expectation, then I realised that it should say 'the bell curve represents the trade area". The green band then shows where your vulnerability lies. Just make sure that they are down towards the lower extremities of the bell curve. The Options Probability Calculator had me stumped for a while. The web page says “you will see a green band in the middle of the bell curve. This band represents the area where we have calculated the stock will most probably trade over the life of the trade”. I changed my call and put strikes and the green band changed!
Try entering ‘price 10, days 30, vol 25, call 11, put 9), then change to ‘call 11.5, put 9.5′ and watch the green band move. Obviously my trades make no difference to the expectation, then I realised that it should say ‘the bell curve represents the trade area”. The green band then shows where your vulnerability lies. Just make sure that they are down towards the lower extremities of the bell curve.

]]> http://www.otrader.com.au/blog/options-probability-calculator.html/comment-page-1#comment-88 Fred Sun, 08 Mar 2009 21:09:01 +0000 http://www.otrader.com.au/blog1/?p=14#comment-88 To increase the accuracy of the options probability calculator you could add to user-input fields for Estimated Price Appreciation (per annum) and Expected Dividend Yield. To increase the accuracy of the options probability calculator you could add to user-input fields for Estimated Price Appreciation (per annum) and Expected Dividend Yield.

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