Astonishing Calculations

11.01.2004

D. Wyckoff Editor of the Ticker Magazine writes...

O ne of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer (1909) when he predicted that September wheat would sell at $1.20.This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September.

At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last trading day) futures were selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled.

Mr. Gann said, "If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation.

I do not care what the price is now, it must go there". It is now history that September wheat surprised the whole country by selling at exactly $1.20 in the very last hour of trading, closing at that figure. During the month of October, 1909 in 25 market days, Mr Gann made in the presence of our market representative 286 transactions in various stocks on both the long and short sides of the market. 264 of these transactions resulted in profits, 22 in losses. The capital with which he operated was doubled 10 times so at the end of the month he had 1000% on his original margin.

Mr Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price but to those who are scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.

One of Gann's Most Remarkable Forecasts was in the year of 1928 - In November W.D. Gann issued an annual forecast predicting the end of the great bull market in stocks for September 3, 1929, and the greatest panic in history to follow. We quote from this forecast,"September - one of the sharpest declines of the year is indicated. There will be loss of confidence by investors and the public will try to get out after it is too late. Storms will damage crops and the general business outlook will become cloudy. War news will upset the market and unfavourable developments will occur in foreign countries.

A 'Black Friday' is indicated and a panicky decline in stocks with only small rallies. The short side will prove the most profitable. You should sell short and pyramid on the way down."

End of R.D. Wyckoff's Comments

Many newspapers commented on the accuracy of this forecast. History proves that the stock market topped on the 3rd September, 1929 at 386. Gann continued to trade and study until his death at 77 years of age in 1955 after accumulating an estimated $50 million.

Gann's system is highly complex and a lot of his writings were veiled in secrecy. He used a combination of methods to determine future trends of the markets which included:-

1. Resistance levels made by market fluctuations
2. Natural resistance levels in squares and the 360 degree circle
3. Geometrical angles
4. Time cycles and time periods
5. Squaring out price with time from tops and bottoms
6. Odd and even squares and the halfway points between both odd and even squares
7. Weekly high and low charts, angles that form on it
8. Monthly high and low charts, angles that form from tops and bottoms
9. Natural time cycles based on the 360 degree master chart
10. Time and price using the square of 9 and 12 charts
11. Seasonal tendencies
12. Market patterns.